WASHINGTON – Don DeArmon knows something about the upcoming election in Maryland’s 6th District that seemingly no one else does.
He is going to win.
DeArmon’s sunny optimism is not dimmed by the fact that he lost convincingly in 2000 to Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Frederick, and faces the five- term incumbent again.
Or that the district, which stretches from Harford County to the far western end of the state, now includes fewer Democrats than during his last run.
Or the fact that that he has raised only a third of the money that Bartlett has and has little to no support from Democratic Party officials in Annapolis.
DeArmon sees victory on Nov. 5
“This district is a surprise waiting to happen,” he said. “Rank-and-file Republicans are telling me this guy’s time is up.”
That came as a surprise to Bartlett as he munched an ice cream sandwich between votes recently in an ornate lounge off the House floor. When asked about DeArmon’s comments, he laughed.
“DeArmon really thinks he is going to win?” Bartlett said, wiping a bit of melted ice cream from his mouth. “I think I’ve represented this district for 10 years because I represent them.”
DeArmon is aware of the challenges he faces in his campaign to defeat Bartlett. In their 2000 race, DeArmon captured a respectable 109,136 votes, but failed to win any of the counties in the district. Bartlett beat him by almost 60,000 votes.
And the district today is more conservative than it was then. State Democrats all but conceded the 6th District to Bartlett in this year’s redistricting, moving the more conservative parts of Montgomery, Harford and Baltimore counties to his district in an effort to siphon GOP votes from the targeted 2nd and 8th districts.
Rep. Robert Ehrlich, R-Timonium, left his 2nd District seat to run for governor this year, while Rep. Connie Morella, R-Bethesda, is in a dead-heat against state Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Montgomery, in the 8th District.
“I’m glad to have a more conservative district, but I am sad that it has hurt my friends,” Bartlett said.
He said his campaign and issues have remained largely unchanged since he took office in 1993: “Less government, less taxes.”
Bartlett brings up his voting record without prompting. Yes, he voted against President Bush’s popular education legislation, the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, and yes, he voted against a highway and transit construction bill. But he said he did so with good reason.
“You couldn’t be for less government if you vote for all these appropriation bills,” he said.
Despite that, Bartlett said he is still fighting to get money for the district.
But DeArmon said the votes on the highway and education bills show a real detachment between the voters and Bartlett.
“I don’t think he can cite one major accomplishment for 6th District since he has been up here,” DeArmon said.
A career congressional staffer, DeArmon is more intimate with Bartlett’s record than Bartlett himself and can rattle off facts about his opponent effortlessly.
Bartlett’s voting record has earned him a lifetime ranking of 98 out of 100 from the American Conservative Union. He has voted in favor of instant background checks at gun shows, instead of a mandatory three-day waiting period. He is in favor of school vouchers and is pro-life.
Bartlett has repeatedly introduced legislation to stop payment of dues to the United Nations. He supported separate military basic training for men and women and has twice tried to do away with Presidents Day, in favor of separate holidays for Presidents Lincoln and Washington.
DeArmon concedes that the race up until now has been “quiet” and a “real sleeper.” But he says over the next few weeks, he will call Bartlett and his record to task.
But even if Bartlett’s record did somehow anger constituents, DeArmon is not known by enough voters to take advantage of that, said pollster Patrick Gonzales of Gonzales/Arscott Research.
“He needs to maintain a high visibility, especially in the last three weeks of the campaign,” Gonzales said.
Gonzales said that DeArmon needs to work harder to get his name out to voters. That means going to every event or forum in the district from now until Election Day, he said, and raising more money to help get his name out to voters.
“Name recognition is hard to come by, but money can buy you that,” Gonzales said. “My instinct is that I would be shocked if Bartlett would be vulnerable out there.”
DeArmon trails in fund raising. He had raised $63,806 as of Sept. 30 and had $39,365 on hand, according to filings with the Federal Elections Commission. Bartlett, who reported raising $148,850 and spending $170,522, still had $148,353 on hand as of Sept. 30, according to the FEC.
DeArmon is trying to overcome the anonymity of being Don DeArmon by walking through his precincts, focusing on the newly added areas of the district. He is telephoning voters with automatic messages. He is sending out mailings, plastered with his slogan of “You deserve better health care.”
DeArmon mechanically runs through his issues. He is against sprawl. He is for universal healthcare. He is for more federal money to education. But when asked for specifics on how he would achieve his goals, he is vague.
State Democratic Party spokesman David Paulson uses words like “courageous” and “the right Democratic candidate” to describe DeArmon. He said that the party is doing everything to help DeArmon win. Everything except put money behind it.
“You hit the right tone at the right time and things happen,” Paulson said. “It’s a tough conservative district. He’s got a huge uphill battle.”
The 6th District campaign is easily dismissed this year, when state parties have been focusing their attention and financial backing on much tighter House races in the 8th and 2nd districts, not to mention a high-profile gubernatorial race.
“The party itself doesn’t do a whole lot out there anyway,” Paulson said of the Western Maryland district.
John Bambacus, a political science professor at Frostburg State University, said that Bartlett’s strong base in Western Maryland forms a solid foundation for his incumbency.
“I think he reflects a larger number of people in the western part of the district,” said Bambacus, a former Republican state senator. “It’s clear that Congressman Bartlett is going to win.”
DeArmon said that if he loses this time it is very unlikely he will run in 2004. But he believes that this election will be his.
“There is no way to prove all the stuff I said unless I win,” he said of his boasts.