Six Things That Explain the Washington Wizards' Success and Failure Over the Last Decade


By Jason Dobkin

Capital News Service

The Washington Wizards' fortunes have fluctuated over the last decade. They went from being a .500 NBA team in 2006 to one of the worst teams in the league in 2009. Since then, they're improved and again finished this season at .500. By using an advance metric called wins above replacement player (WARP), it's possible to see which players were most responsible for their success, and which ones dragged the team down. Here are six things we learned by crunching the numbers.

1. Some Players Logged Significant Minutes Who Shouldn't Have

Generally, Wizards players who contributed more to the team's success got more playing time. For example, Gilbert Arenas played an average of 42 minutes per game in 2006 -- the most of any Wizard over the last decade. His WARP that season was 17.28, meaning his performance accounted for 17 more wins than if he had been replaced by an average player. But there were a few outliers - players who were a significant part of the team's rotation but actually cost the team wins instead of adding them. In 2008, Nick Young, who is known as a strictly offensive player and a defensive liability, played 22.4 minutes per game and had a WARP of -3.51.

2. Gilbert Arenas Had A Meteoric Rise And Then An Even More Meteoric Fall

Arenas came into the league with the Golden State Warriors in 2001 and immediately played at a high level. He shot fairly well and put up almost 11 points per game. He continued that success when he started playing for the Wizards in the 2003 season. But in his second season with the team, he turned it up a notch, becoming an elite scorer. By the next season, he was one of the most dominant players in the NBA. The following year, his shooting numbers started to tank. Then, in December 2009, a disagreement between Arenas and Javaris Crittendon led to a gun-wielding standoff in the locker room. He was charged with gun possession and suspended for the rest of the season, and he never quite got his playing career back on track.

3. John Wall's Career Started with Consistent Improvement, but He's Leveled Off

After the Wizards traded Arenas in 2010, the team drafted John Wall. A natural playmaker, Wall showed solid improvement in the years following his rookie season, becoming a better shooter and passer. But his WARP has hovered around 10 for the last three seasons, and has yet to reach Arenas' peak WARP, 17.28 in 2006.

4. Gilbert Arenas and John Wall Had the Most Influence on the Wizards' Success

The Wizards' success over the past decade has been largely dependent on the play of Arenas and Wall, the team's biggest stars. From 2005 to 2007, when Arenas was at his best (and with some help from one or two main supporting players), Washington finished above .500 and was a playoff team. But when Arenas went downhill, so did the Wizards. They became one of the worst teams in the league. As John Wall's career progressed, they got better again, reaching the playoffs in 2014 and 2015 after a five-year drought. Now that Wall's progression seems to have slowed, so has the team's. They missed the playoffs this past season.

In 2006, the combined WARP of every Wizards player was 32.67. Arenas' WARP that season -- 17.28 -- accounted for more than half of the team's total.

In 2015, the combined WARP of every Wizards player was 27.81. Wall's WARP that season -- 10.53 -- accounted for about a third of the team's total.

6. Bradley Beal's Career Hasn't Taken Off Like Many Thought it Would, but Otto Porter's Has Started to Take Off

Beal was the third pick of the 2012 NBA draft, and Porter was the third pick of the 2013 draft. Beal's numbers aren't bad, but this past season, Porter was significantly more valuable than Beal. Beal's WARP has been up and down since he came into the league -- and this year was a down year. Porter's, however, has shot straight up.