WASHINGTON – Minor league baseball teams in Bowie and Frederick have little to fear from the Expos’ planned move to Washington, according to team officials and an economist specializing in the business of baseball.
The Bowie Baysox would see, at most, a 10 percent decline in attendance, said Andrew Zimbalist, a Smith College economics professor and expert on the national pastime’s finances.
The Frederick Keys, because they are farther from the District, would likely see a loss of only 1 to 2 percent of their fan base, he said.
“I think there’ll be a small impact, because they’re serving different markets,” Zimbalist said. “The minor leagues cater to a smaller budget.”
Team officials agree that the decline will be slight, if at all. They also said there is a good chance the teams will see an up-tick in attendance.
“In my business experience, when there’s more of something, the marketplace tends to expand, not contract,” said David Pearlman, president and founder of Triple Play Partners. The Lexington, Mass.-based company purchased the Baysox, Keys and Delmarva Shorebirds in July from Comcast Spectacor and expects Major League Baseball to approve the sale by year’s end.
If there is any impact, it could be in advertising revenues for the minor league, said an official with their parent organization, the Baltimore Orioles.
“There may be a shift in advertising dollars,” said Orioles’ spokesman Bill Stetka. “Some businesses may chose to reallocate their baseball advertising budget to the new team (in Washington).
“Companies only have a certain number of dollars, which may go elsewhere with the Expos nearby,” Stetka said.
But Pearlman said he is not worried.
“I think people supporting us recognize what a terrific (marketing) opportunity we represent,” he said. “Plus, more baseball in the area will only enhance our interests.”
Pearlman agreed with Zimbalist that his teams would not compete for fans with the major league teams because of the demographic differences. That’s not true for the Orioles, however, and he empathized with the plight of the parent club.
“We feel we’re in a strong position,” Pearlman said. “But we understand the position the Orioles are in.”
The Orioles have long fretted about the prospect of a chunk of their fan base being siphoned off by a major league team in Washington, and opposed a team there because of it. Past estimates on the number of fans lost to a team in Washington have been as high as 30 percent.
Stetka would not comment Thursday on the impact the Expos’ will have on the major league club in Baltimore, but said the team’s minor league affiliates would largely be unaffected.
“The minor league market is very different from what you have here,” said Stetka, alluding to the likelihood the fan base for the Baysox and Keys would hold firm.
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