WASHINGTON – Maryland’s population is expected to top 7 million in 2030, or 1.7 million more people than were in the state in 2000, the Census Bureau is expected to announce in a report to be released today.
The bureau says that if current demographic trends hold, the state’s population would grow 32.6 percent, from 5,296,486 in 2000 to 7,022,251 in 2030. That would make Maryland the 16th-most-populous state in the country in 2030, up from 19th place in 2000.
But one state official called the Census projection “an implausible scenario,” saying there may not be enough land or housing to accommodate the expected newcomers.
“The bureau’s projections are based on the assumption that recent demographic trends will continue in the future and doesn’t take into account any local characteristics,” said Mark Goldstein, economist at the Maryland Department of Planning.
Goldstein’s estimates, which are driven by land-use planning and housing capacity, show a population of 6.4 million in 2030, which is 575,000 lower than the Census numbers.
But the Census Bureau said Wednesday it would stand by its numbers.
“They are not meant to be forecasts or predictions,” said Signe Wetrogan, the bureau’s assistant chief for population estimates and projection. “They are meant to the result of taking a look at the most recent patterns.”
One factor that could change the 2030 number is foreign immigration: That has been the main driver of Maryland population growth, said Steven Camarota, director of research at the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies.
“It is something we have complete control over,” said Camarota. He worried about the effect of those population increases would have on the state’s social services, roads and open spaces.
A Maryland State Highway Administration spokeswoman said the state is doing all it can to plan long-term projects to meet the needs and demands of a growing population. And a state housing official said the demand for housing will at least be met for the next 10 years.
The state will add an average of 23,000 new households each year for the next 10 years, said Massoud Ahmadi, director of research at the Department of Housing and Community Development. But local governments are currently issuing enough building permits to meet that demand every year.
“If Maryland counties continue to issue building permits at an average of 27,000 each year, projected demand will be met by actual supply of new housing,” Ahmadi said.
The ratio of new households to building permits equals one for most counties, he said. But affordable housing is “a totally different story,” he said.
-30- CNS 04-20-05