Lamar Jackson stood at the podium on Jan. 28 after he and the Baltimore Ravens suffered a season-ending 17-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
A reporter asked the quarterback what traits he wanted his Ravens to emulate from a Kansas City team that had just won its fourth conference championship amid a string of six-straight appearances.
“No turnovers,” Jackson said. “… (Kansas City) played the game basically perfect. They put points on the board. I felt like if we wouldn’t have turned the ball over … we definitely woulda came out with a win.”
Baltimore committed three turnovers in the loss, including a pair of deflating giveaways in the fourth quarter that stalled its push to trim a 17-7 deficit.
The Ravens’ two fourth-quarter turnovers played a role in denying the franchise its first Super Bowl appearance in 11 years and prolonged a troubling trend that has persisted since current head coach John Harbaugh took over in 2008.
In each of its 11 playoff seasons under Harbaugh, Baltimore has averaged more fourth-quarter turnovers in its postseason games than it did in its regular season games.
It’s fair to wonder if the Ravens’ high fourth-quarter turnover rate during the playoffs simply stems from facing better defenses.
Accounting for an entire game — not just the fourth quarter — throughout its 11 playoff seasons with Harbaugh as head coach, Baltimore commits 0.7 more turnovers per game in the postseason than it does in the regular season.
But examining the Ravens’ per-game turnovers on a more granular level reveals that the team is especially inept in the fourth quarter during playoff games.
Baltimore’s per-game turnover rate during the fourth quarter is 98% higher in the postseason than in the regular season. Comparatively, the Ravens’ per-game giveaways throughout the first three quarters increase by 14% from the regular season to the playoffs.
Baltimore’s late-game ball security has correlated heavily with the team’s postseason fate under Harbaugh. Nineteen of the Ravens’ 23 fourth-quarter playoff giveaways since 2008 have occurred in losses.
It’s not to say that fourth-quarter turnovers are the sole reason for Baltimore’s playoff defeats, but some miscues have been more consequential than others.
None was more devastating than backup quarterback Tyler Huntley’s fumble against Cincinnati in the 2022 AFC Wild Card Game.
Less than 12 minutes remained in a 17-17 game when the Ravens faced third-and-goal from the 1-yard-line. Huntley fumbled as he tried to extend the football over the goal line on a leaping quarterback sneak. Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard snagged the loose ball and raced 98 yards for what proved to be the deciding touchdown in the Ravens’ 24-17 loss.
“We felt we had a good call,” said Harbaugh of the decision to keep the ball in Huntley’s hands instead of calling for a handoff. “ … It wasn’t executed the correct way. Tyler went over the top. It’s a burrow play, he’s gotta go low on that.”
Huntley’s fumble was the costliest of Baltimore’s 23 fourth-quarter playoff turnovers in terms of win probability added, a statistic that measures how much an individual play impacts a team’s chance of winning the game.
Hubbard’s go-ahead touchdown shriveled the Ravens’ WPA against Cincinnati from 65.7% to 17.1%. Excluding Huntley’s miscue, six of Baltimore’s fourth-quarter postseason turnovers have carried at least a 10% decrease in the Ravens' WPA.
Part of Baltimore’s elevated turnover rate in the fourth quarter of playoff games expectedly stems from failed fourth downs on desperation drives. Four of the Ravens’ nine turnovers on downs came on late-game possessions in which it trailed by at least two touchdowns.
But Baltimore has also been mistake-prone in more high-leverage moments. Eleven of the Ravens’ 23 fourth-quarter playoff turnovers since 2008 have occurred when the scoring margin was within eight points, or one possession. Eight of those giveaways, Huntley’s fumble being the latest, occurred during games Baltimore lost.
The other three turnovers in one-score games proved to be speed bumps throughout the Ravens’ four-game run in the 2012 playoffs that culminated in the franchise’s second Super Bowl title. Since then, Baltimore is just 3-6 in the postseason and has committed 11 additional fourth-quarter turnovers in those games.