The oak trees on Mike Tidwell’s street in Montgomery County are dying, so he wrote a book about it.
“In the last few years, I just have become very conscious of the fact that our biggest trees in Takoma Park were dying,” said Tidwell, founder and director of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network. “I read in the city newsletter and heard from arborists that this mass tree mortality was linked to extreme weather, triggered by climate change. I thought that was sad and amazing.”
Tidwell’s new book, “The Lost Trees of Willow Avenue,” looks beyond Takoma Park. It examines extreme weather events and climate change happening across the state. And other experts agree that the impact is vast, including on the Eastern Shore, where more dead trees can be found in the “ghost forests” of Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge.
These things are happening because temperatures in Maryland have never been warmer.
Since the 20th century, temperatures in the state have risen around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. But it’s more than just heat. Federal data shows the state is experiencing increasing precipitation, a higher probability of summer droughts, more extreme weather events and flooding accompanied with rising sea levels.
The impact of climate change on the state is as varied as its landscape. From vast forests and rolling farms that line the Eastern Shore to the 80.9 square miles of Baltimore City scattered with heat islands, different areas of the state will be affected by climate change in vastly different ways.
To hear Tidwell and other environmental experts tell it, the state’s poorest communities will face the greatest climate challenges. Communities on the Eastern Shore — where farmlands are becoming wetlands — and Baltimore’s city neighborhoods are at particular risk.
“There are certain communities, especially marginalized communities that won’t have the resources to adapt,” Tidwell said. “We just have to stabilize the climate before we face those truly nightmarish impacts.”
The changes Maryland is likely to face are detailed in the federal government’s fifth National Climate Assessment — but the Trump administration deleted all that data from the internet on June 30. However, the Local News Network at the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism downloaded all that data months ago and used it as the basis of this story and the accompanying county summaries.
Here’s a closer look at what’s happening to the climate, and what’s expected to happen, across the state:
Eastern Shore
The remnants of Harriet Tubman’s birth home sit in a dying forest in Dorchester County.
“They found the original foundations of her home and you now can’t even get there because it’s in the middle of a ghost forest,” said Kate Tully, a researcher and associate professor at the University of Maryland College of Agriculture and Natural Resources.
Ghost forests — which are either partially or completely dead — can be found throughout the lower Eastern Shore in Dorchester, Somerset, Worcester and Wicomico counties. These ghost forests result from saltwater intrusion, or what Tully refers to as “invisible floods,” where seawater creeps inland as temperatures and waters rise.
“That’s essentially when the salt burns the tree from the inside out,” Tully said.
High tides, droughts and groundwater pumping all contribute to this increasingly common phenomenon. Eventually, land plagued by saltwater intrusion turns into either marshland or open water.
As a result, Tubman’s home — only discovered just a few years ago in the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge — is now inaccessible.
In the lower Eastern Shore, there are over 70,000 acres of forest classified by the state as ghost forests, with 90% of those acres classified as severely or very severely impacted. For a forest to fall under these classifications, at least half of its trees would be dead.
But saltwater intrusion isn’t just killing forests.
“There are farmers that are being highly impacted by the saltwater intrusion and the loss of productivity of their land,” said Elliott Campbell, director of the science and research division of the Watershed and Climate Services at Maryland’s Department of Natural Resources. “There’s not really a way to, like, get the salt out.”
Farms along the Eastern Shore, including northern counties such as Cecil, Kent, Talbot and Caroline, are known for growing corn and soybeans, used primarily to feed livestock, Campbell said. But these crops don’t grow well in salty soil, and Campbell said there is no perfect alternative.
While there are vulnerable farms throughout the entire shore, Tully said Black communities in the lower Eastern Shore are being disproportionately impacted by saltwater intrusion.
“We’ve already lost so many Black farms in Black communities on the Eastern Shore,” Tully said. “There’s actually a whole history that’s already gone underwater that we will never get back.”
In the Antebellum period, the lower Eastern Shore became home to many free Black people escaping slavery from Virginia and other Southern states. The tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay helped provide a living for many formerly enslaved people. But Tully said these communities — and their deep-rooted history — will disappear soon if they’re not already underwater.
The Chesapeake Bay region is the United States’ third-most vulnerable area to sea level rise behind Louisiana and South Florida, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Because the low-lying, largely flat area is so vulnerable, the effects of an increasing climate are much more intense than in other parts of the state. The Chesapeake Bay has already risen from 1.3 to 1.5 inches each decade over the past 100 years, and increasing temperatures would drastically increase precipitation.
The land isn’t the only thing vulnerable to climate change. Throughout the entire Eastern Shore, the fishing industry is changing.
“One very clear example is that we never had a shrimp industry in the state until the last couple years,” Campbell said.
Campbell also said blue crabs populations, which do well in warmer waters, will thrive. But the effects on the bay aren’t all positive.
Warmer waters will kill fish at an increasing rate, Campbell said. Similarly, an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the acidity in the ocean water, which can deplete oyster populations.
As for the Eastern Shore’s farmland and ghost forests, Campbell said the best case for this land experiencing saltwater intrusion is for it to transition into wetlands. The state has a pilot program to help farmers with that transition.
“In some cases, you see marshes forming under those forests,” Campbell said. “But in some cases, they eventually will transition to just open water and you lose that ecosystem.”
Baltimore City
Baltimore City is vulnerable to both rising temperatures and increased precipitation. The city saw its hottest recorded temperatures in 2023, with an average of 59.4 degrees Fahrenheit for the year.
Increasing temperatures are one of the biggest threats to the city, and because of its infrastructure and lack of greenery, many areas in the city are classified as urban heat islands. High temperatures are dangerous for residents, may overload the energy grid and could increase respiratory illness rates, including asthma.
“The number one killer from climate change is not hurricanes, it’s not flooding — it’s heat,” Tidwell said. “Heat waves kill more people, especially the very old and the very young and the very poor, so very concerned about areas of Baltimore and elsewhere.”
Some people in the city are trying to combat these rising temperatures. Katie Lautar is the executive director of Baltimore Green Space, a nonprofit organization working to preserve green spaces in communities.
“What we wanted to draw attention to is that if we are going to lose more forests, the temperatures are going to rise faster,” Lautar said. “Forests provide better cooling benefits to the surrounding community.”
But rising temperatures aren’t the only worry for the city. Rising sea levels and increases in extreme storm events could affect Baltimore because it sits right on the harbor. A study done by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lays out the risks Baltimore City faces. It found that from 1997 to 2011, the city was spending $2.2 million annually to rebuild from flooding events.
Lataur said this is an issue the organization is trying to combat through their preservation and advocacy work.
“If there are streets that are already flooding with buses floating down the street in severe weather events, then we need to be especially mindful that development should not be encouraged right around those regions,” Lautar said.
The city is trying to adapt. Baltimore City adopted a new version of its disaster preparedness plan in 2023, specifically targeting the effects of climate change on the city’s residents.
The plan identifies issues ranging from dam hazards to extreme temperatures to soil movement. It also delves into plan implementation and maintenance, detailing key members of the Baltimore City government and their role in the plan implementation.
“Climate change is expected to exacerbate many of these natural hazard impacts resulting in intense and unpredictable events,” reads the preparedness plan. “Regardless of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, climate change impacts will continue to prevail for Baltimore City and its people.”
Southern Maryland
On the Western Shore of the Chesapeake Bay are St. Mary’s, Charles, Calvert and Anne Arundel counties. Like the Eastern Shore, many areas in Southern Maryland are susceptible to flooding and rising sea levels.
“We have a lot of coastal development on the Western Shore,” Campbell said. “Less agriculture exists, but more communities. And there are quite a few very vulnerable communities on the Western Shore and the Eastern Shore to sea level rise.”
While the region will see coastal ecological impacts, Campbell said his biggest worry for the Western Shore, including counties in Southern Maryland, are the impacts both rising sea levels and an increase in high intensity storm events could have on the communities in the region.
The region is extremely vulnerable to extreme precipitation increases as temperatures rise. If temperatures rise by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, Anne Arundel and Calvert counties will see 27 more days per year with extreme precipitation, while Charles County will see 38 more such days, according to the National Climate Assessment. These are some of the highest numbers in the state.
Increased flooding could be an issue, according to Campbell.
“If you look at, you know, Baltimore and Annapolis, they have a lot of infrastructure that is vulnerable even with a foot or two of sea level rise,” Campbell said.
Capital Region and Howard County
Prince George’s and Montgomery are the two of the largest counties in the state, and along with Howard County, this region is home to 2.4 million people, according to 2023 U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
While this region will continue to see climbing temperatures, extreme precipitation will remain a major problem. The three counties will see dramatic increases in days with extreme precipitation each year as temperatures rise.
Federal projections show Montgomery County will see nearly five more days a year at or above 95 degrees at the lowest levels of temperature increases, and Prince George’s County will see just over six days at or above 95. At this same level of warming, both of those counties can expect an extra 31 days a year with extreme levels of precipitation.
Doug Siglin, a retired environmental professional, lives in Howard County and is an environmental activist. He has also worked on advocacy projects in Montgomery County and Washington, D.C.
“I don’t think people are feeling the effects particularly of climate change, but I do think that they’re very aware of it,” Siglin said. “They’re very upset about it and they want something to happen. They just don’t know what it is that can be done.”
While the full implications of climate change are not evident to all, Howard County has already experienced fatal flooding events. In 2016 and 2018, torrential downpours of over 6.5 inches of rain in three hours flooded Ellicott City and Catonsville, resulting in three fatalities over the two years and major destruction with each flood.
Both Howard County and Montgomery County have climate action plans as well, both aimed at mitigating climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, Prince George’s County established a climate action plan in 2021 dealing with all aspects of global warming, including flooding.
Central Maryland
Two of the three counties in central Maryland — Baltimore and Harford counties — are on the Western Shore. Carroll County is just inland.
Like the rest of the state, these counties are set to experience temperature increases and precipitation increases. And people are worried.
A Baltimore-area survey published by Johns Hopkins University in March includes residents from Baltimore County and Baltimore City. Nearly three-quarters of the Baltimore County residents surveyed said they are worried about higher costs due to climate change.
Overall, 73% of Baltimore-area residents believe climate change will affect them personally at some point in their lives. This is a stark difference from the 2023 national estimate of 46% of adults who believe climate change will affect them at some point in their lives, according to the Johns Hopkins survey.
“We found that the overall share of Baltimore-area residents who are concerned that climate change will personally harm them in the future is high compared to the nation and the state of Maryland,” the authors of the study wrote in a summary of their work.
If temperatures increase by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, residents will see between four and five more days above 95 F. The number of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase as well.
Western Maryland
Western Maryland will see the state’s most minimal changes from climate change. Frederick, Washington, Allegany and Garrett counties will see temperature increases, but these counties are less susceptible to the drastic changes expected elsewhere.
In the region, Garrett County, the westernmost county in the state, will undergo the smallest temperature change seen in the state. With a 2.7-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase, Garrett County will only experience 0.33 more days each year over 95 degrees, just a fraction of a day.
However, experts said Western Maryland will still see extreme flash flooding as temperatures and precipitation increase. Allegany and Garrett counties already experienced flash flooding in May after a sudden outburst of up to five inches of rain.
“You don’t fully grasp the scale of it until you’re standing here, witnessing it for yourself,” Rep. April McClain Delaney (D) said when visiting the flooded area with Gov. Wes Moore. “We’ve met families who had to evacuate their homes and small business owners now facing tough choices.”
According to Deborah Landau, director of ecological management for the Maryland/DC chapter of The Nature Conservancy, flooding will continue to be a major issue in the Maryland panhandle. She said flooding and rising temperatures may harm communities and ecosystems.
“Western Maryland is part of the central Appalachian Mountains, and [The Nature Conservancy] has targeted the Appalachian Mountains as one of the most important places to protect worldwide,” Landau said.
She said the organization is working to protect the forests and the species that travel through them. According to Landau, the Appalachian Mountains are a “superhighway” for species movement in the region.
But people, along with the animals in their communities, will also see major effects in the region.
“It’s often going to impact a lot of maybe less affluent communities, those that are less likely to have flood insurance,” Landau said. “And with flooding, it takes a long time to recover. It’s a lot of infrastructure damage.”
Landau said the potential for flooding can be offset, at least partially, through forest protection.
“Protecting and restoring the forests that we have is really going to help move the needle back into the right direction, and hopefully help protect many of these communities that are currently being impacted by this awful flooding,” Landau said.
Capital News Service reporter Rachel McCrea contributed to this report.