The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that they will release the Consumer Price Index on Oct. 24, a week after its scheduled release.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in the prices paid by urban consumers over time for a “market basket” of goods and services. The CPI is widely used as a measure of inflation as experienced by consumers.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) requires this data on inflation rates from July to September to decide the adjustment for social security benefits the following year. According to Erica Groshen, a senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial Labor Relations and former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, these numbers must be precise.
“If the BLS misestimates the inflation rate that goes into adjusting social security benefits by 1/10 of a percent over the course of a year, then the federal government will overpay or underpay beneficiaries by over a billion dollars,” said Groshen.
In a statement to the Capital News Service, a spokesperson at the SSA said that they will use the CPI to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 24. The COLA is based on the inflation rate in the CPI and is adjusted annually to help offset inflation. Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits will be adjusted per the 2026 COLA starting in January without any delay due to the current shutdown.
The government shutdown which began on Oct. 1 has caused other disruptions in report releases and data collection at the BLS, including monthly economic reports that offer insights about the labor market.
The Employment Situation, a report typically released on the first Friday of every month, examines the change in employment on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis.
On Oct. 3, this report was not released because of the government shutdown. According to Groshen, there won’t be a significant difference in the short term, but the longer the shutdown progresses there will be breaks in the data because the BLS won’t be able to replace what it didn’t collect.
“You’ll have a disruption to the historical time series and you’ll have more time that people have had to make decisions without good information,” said Groshen.
According to Groshen, the BLS begins collecting data for the Employment Situation during the last two weeks of the month. So while data collected for the report hasn’t been affected thus far, the coming days are a critical time for data collection.
Businesses that rely on the Employment Situation may turn to other companies like Revelio Labs or ADP. They both release monthly employment reports that can be used in decision making regarding the labor market. Revelio reports on both public and private business employment while ADP only focuses on the private sector.
These sources have both had discrepancies compared to the BLS’s employment situation report.
From the period between July and August, Revelio estimated an increase of 105,900 private nonfarm jobs, though ADP estimated a decrease of 3,000 jobs. In contrast, the BLS estimated an increase of 38,000 private nonfarm jobs. In their most recent reports that cover August to September, Revelio estimates an increase of 60,700 jobs while ADP estimates a decrease of 32,000 jobs.
According to Groshen, having disagreeing reports from two private companies could be dangerous because we may be at a turning point in the economy.
“I don’t know that we’re slipping into recession, but we might be, and this would be the number that people were going to look at really carefully to see whether the strength of the economy is holding up,” said Groshen.
When the shutdown ends, the BLS may experience issues internally. They have faced budget cuts and a loss in staffing. In a talk at the Levy Institute of Bard College on Sept. 16, former BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer said that in the 15 years before she came to the agency, the budget had decreased by 18% and staffing at the agency now is down by another 20%.
According to Groshen, if the BLS continues to lose support, they may be forced to cut out some of their other data collection efforts. This includes the Occupational Outlook Handbook, which can help state and local governments determine occupational projections or other programs focusing on research like the National Longitudinal Survey or the American Time Use Survey that offer unique information about the effects of labor market outcomes.
While there are alternatives for some of this data, Groshen says they come with risks.
“How good they will be is hard to tell, but generally speaking, they don’t have the same incentives to be transparent the way the statistical agency must about their methodology, they won’t have a long track record for anything they produce.”