Holiday retail sales are expected to reach $1 trillion for the first time, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), a trade association for retailers, though the federal government shutdown and increased layoffs across the United States may stall holiday spending.
In a press call on Nov. 6, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay announced that they predict holiday retail sales between November and December to increase by 3.7% to 4.2% over retail sales during this same time in 2024. That translates to a growth to about $1.01 to $1.02 trillion.
In a webinar on Nov. 12 that took a deep dive into NRF’s holiday consumer outlook, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews noted that there may be regional impacts seen in holiday shopping.
Layoffs have occurred in the U.S. at heightened levels this year, with March alone accounting for over 275,000 layoffs according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, an agency that helps laid off employees find new jobs. For the month of October, layoffs rose to just over 153,000, nearly 100,000 up compared to September, which saw about 54,000 layoffs. Washington, D.C. has been hit particularly hard.
Despite layoffs, as retailers prepare for the holiday season, the NRF predicts an estimated 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers to be hired this year, though this is down nearly 100,000 from last year’s numbers.
The latest federal government shutdown saw at least 1.4 million Americans without pay, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. Now that it has ended, the NRF expects spending to recover across all areas of retail, though some may see an impact, according to Mathews.
“We actually might see less impact in essentials, such as grocery spending, and more in non-essentials since these households will have spent what they could on essentials and cut back more dramatically on non-essential spending during the shutdown,” wrote Mathews in a statement to Capital News Service.
From their 2025 holiday consumer survey, which was conducted in October, the NRF found that 46% of consumers will make holiday purchases at grocery stores. Circana, a market research company, found in their 2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report that 63% of their respondents believe that food/grocery costs will have an impact on their holiday spending.
Despite political and economic uncertainties, Shay believes that there is still room for a positive holiday spending outlook because people care about the holidays and make plans for it.
“As one CEO said to me just this week, when it comes to holidays, particularly the holiday season, respectfully to all religions out there listening, ‘somehow every year, Santa Claus always comes’,” said Shay during the NRF holiday sales forecast press call.
In their webinar the NRF said that 63% of consumers will shop for the holidays during Thanksgiving weekend, up from 59% in 2024. According to the vice president of industry and consumer insights, Katherine Cullen, this increase is possibly due to uncertainty, a lack of urgency toward store promotions or a shift back to pre-pandemic levels regarding shopping.
Deloitte, a professional services company, wrote in their holiday retail survey that they expect 70% of shoppers to begin making purchases for the holidays during Thanksgiving week and that shopping traffic will peak in late November into early December.
Clothing and accessories, toys and electronics– according to Deloitte’s, Circana’s and the NRF’s reports– are still gifts consumers want or are gifting this year, but non-store bought gifts are gaining popularity.
Some consumers will turn to social media and/or generative AI to assist them this holiday season. Circana reported that the top five platforms respondents plan to use are YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and X for research. Deloitte reported that almost 60% of consumers plan to use social media to browse for gifts, find deals and view product reviews while just over 30% plan to use AI to discover deals, create shopping lists and read summaries of reviews.
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